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AREA AND POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES 
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BY 



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AUGUST, 1897 



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AREA AND POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES 
AT THE ELEVENTH CENSUS 



BY 

WALTER F.'WILLCOX, Ph.D. 



AUGUST, 1897 



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AREA AND POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES 
AT THE ELEVENTH CENSUS 



PREFACE. 

This Study is the first part of a projected Introduction 
to the Social Statistics of the United States. It will be 
followed shortly by another on the Density and Distri- 
bution of their population. From this standpoint the 
prefatory chapter should be judged. Both Studies are 
the outcome of lectures on Social Statistics offered to 
university undergraduates and are published primarily 
for their convenience, but may be suggestive to others en- 
gaged in teaching or studying the subject. The writer's 
conception of statistics is that it is a method of giving pre- 
cision to knowledge by making quantitative and verifiable 
statements possible in some fields where they have been 
precluded. The comparative insignificance for social 
science of the topics which the statistical method frees 
from the subjectivity of personal opinion or individual 
observation should not blind one to the important fact 
that this method contributes to make progress in knowl- 
edge possible by liberating certain aspects of it from 
the labyrinth of personal and unverifiable argument. 

WALTER F. WIIvLCOX. 

Cornell university, 
July, 1897. 



,'\ 



CONTENTS. 



PAGB 

Introduction 2^- 

Chapte;r I.— Area of the United States and its Divisions 211 

Chapter II.— Popui^ation of the United States and its 

Divisions 228 



UST OF TABI^ES. 

I. Area of Countries Controlling over One Million Square 

Miles 214 

II. Gross Area of the States and Proportion of Coast Water, 

Lake and River Surface 218 

III. Comparison of Measured Land Surface of Certain Counties 

with Census Figures 224 

IV. Population of States by Censuses Taken Since 1890 . . . . 243 

V. Comparison Between Results of Eleventh Census and Esti- 
mates 246 

VI. Population of the most Populous Countries According to 

Various Authorities 252 

VII. Total Population of Each State and Percentage of Country . 255 



INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAI. STATISTICS. 

The meaning of the word statistics is still a subject of 
some dispute. In such a case the ultimate authority 
is not its etymology, but current usage. This author- 
ity is often vague in its utterances, and offers only 
an uncertain or ambiguous meaning which persons wish- 
ing to employ the word with scientific precision, may 
make more exact, though they may not overrule usage. 
Judged by this standard, the word statistics refers to the 
direct or indirect results of counting in the real world 
about the observer, and no further definite content can 
be assigned it. The counting may have occurred in any 
portion of the world. The estimate of the number of 
stars from enumeration of those in a certain field and 
multiplication results in statistics. The figures express- 
ing the annual production of iron, lumber or beef, or the 
average daily attendance at a fair are statistics. When- 
ever the word is used, the thought is suspended until 
the subject to which the figures refer is made known. 
Statistics of «, ^, or c is always the rounded notion. 
Nor is this an error of popular speech, which is avoided 
by exact writers, for experts give it the same meaning. 
During the meetings of the International Statistical In- 
stitute at Chicago in 1893, papers were offered upon agri- 
culture, railways, education, anthropometry, marriage 
and divorce and crime, and they were all welcomed as 
statistical.^ By the concurrence of popular and scientific 
usage, then, the word statistics refers to the results ob- 
tained in any field of reality by methods of counting.^ 

1 Bulletin de Iv'Institut International de Statistique, Tome VIII, 
Premiere Livraison. 1895. 
2Riimeliu, Reden und Aufsatze, 1875, p. 226. 



2o8 Economic Studies. 

The word statistics is derived from the same source as 
state, but the latter has two root meanings, a condition, 
as the state of one's health, and a political body, as the 
state of Portugal, and from which of the two statistics is 
a branch has been disputed/ Probably, however, statis- 
tics is derived from state in the sense of a political body 
and the word then means etymologically the science of 
states. Its history in brief, is as follows '? 

Early in the sixteenth century, and partly under the 
influence of Machiavelli,'^ the disinterested study of 
politics revived. Its practical aspects received in Italian 
the name of ragione di stato^ or in barbarous Latin the 
equivalent ratio status. In these phrases stato or status 
was the generic name for a political body, while the 
older and more usual terms, res publica^ civitas and iin- 
periiLwi.^ were restricted to specific kinds of political 
bodies. From stato in this sense was formed the Italian 
statista^ the German and English statist^ a statesman/ 

' Some have claimed that both meanings of state were implicate in 
statistics. This notion apparently finds expression in the defini- 
tion of Webster, " a collection of facts respecting the condition of the 
people in a state." 

^V. John, Der Name Statistik, in Zeitschrift fiir Schweizerische 
Statistik, 1883 ; Eng. trans, in J. Royal Stat. Soc, 46 : 656-679, (1883). 
V. John, G2schichte der Statistik, pp. 4-11. A. Gabaglio, Teoria 
Generale della Statistica, Vol. i, p. 59, Vol. 2, p. i. 

' ** We find in him for the first time since Aristotle the pure passion- 
less curiosity of the man of science." — Pollock, History of the Science 
of Politics, p. 42. 

* Examples of the early use of statist in English, with the meaning 
of statesman are : 
1602 : I once did hold it, as our statists do, 

A baseness to write fair and laboured much 

How to forget that learning . . . Shakspere, Hamlet, 5 : 2 : 33. 



Introduction to Social Statistics. 209 

and from this the adjective siatisticiis^ relating to a 
statesman. The new studies in practical political science 
were called disciplina politicO'Statistica or in abbreviated 
form, statistics. That word thus became the name for 
the studies deemed of especial value to one aspiring to 
enter the service of a state. 

The difference between the present and the original 
meaning of statist and statistics is explained by the fact 
that the latter word was adopted nearly a century ago as 
the name of a study having a distinct origin, and pre- 
viously called ''political arithmetic." This study of 
society by the enumerating method had its origin in 
England, and its inspiration in the triumphs of mathe- 
matical and inductive methods gained in other fields by 
members of the embryonic Royal Society. It began 

1609 : I do believe 

(Statist though I am none nor like to be) 

That this will prove a war.— Shakspere, Cymbeline, 2 :4 : 16. 
1654 : {wfUten much earlier) To you the statists of long-flourishing 

Rome. — Webster, Appius and Virginia, i 14 
1643: Among statists and lawyers. —Milton, Doctrine and Disci- 
pline of Divorce. 
167 1 : Statists indeed and lovers of their country. — Milton, Paradise 

Regained, 4:354- 
As statist in this sense is obsolete the attempt to revive the word 
as a brief and euphonious substitute for statistician seems to deserve 
encouragement. A few illustrations of this use may be given. 
1870: The keen statist reckons by tens and hundreds.— Emerson, 

Society and Solitude, (ed. 1876), p. 270. 
1877 : The high rate of infant mortality continues to occupy the 
earnest attention of medical statists.— Farr, Vital Statis- 
tics, p. 190 
1895 : How pleased I am to meet again such a body of statists. I 
like the old and short word. — W. W. Folwell, in Proceed- 
ings of Nat. Ass'u of Officials of Bureaus of Labor Statistics, 
P- 54. 



2IO Eco7iomic Studies. 

with Captain Jolm Graunt, who published his Natural 
and Political Observations in 1662.^ His conclusions 
were mainly social rather than physical or biological, 
and the same is still true of the results obtained by the 
statistical method. There is, therefore, justification for 
giving political arithmetic the shorter name derived 
from the organized political life of man. Popular in- 
stinct and language were not entirely at fault. While 
the enumerating method has never been confined to the 
study of governmental phenomena, yet it is mainly used 
for the investigation of some aspect of man's social life. 
This fact is loosely expressed in both terms, political 
arithmetic and statistics. 

As the applications of the statistical method widen, it 
seems better to add some modifying word or phrase 
defining the subject. The work of which this Study 
is the opening part will be concerned with the applica- 
tions of the statistical method to man's social life ; it is 
therefore entitled Social Statistics. The primary aim, 
to interest students of society in an unfamiliar method, 
may be furthered by showing it at work and in connec- 
tion with its results better than by mere discussion of 
method. Statements of fact have been incorporated not 
primarily for their own sake but to elucidate the method. 
Only the simplest topics under the simplest division, viz., 
demography or the statistics of population, will be treated, 
because they best reveal and illustrate it, and in nearly 
every instance the illustrative facts will be drawn from 
some portion of the United States. 

^ Natural and Political Observations mentioned in a following Index 
and made upon the Bills of Mortality by John Graunt, Citizen of Lon- 
don. Ivondon, 1662. 



CHAPTER I. 

AREA OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS DIVISIONS. 

Area is usually treated in books on statistics as an un- 
questionable datum, but the imperfect condition of Am- 
erican surveys makes a brief criticism necessary. Other- 
wise the trustworthiness of subsequent determinations of 
the ratio between area and population, i. e.^ densit}^ of 
population, would be matter of faith rather than of reason. 
By area is meant the number of units of surface included 
within certain boundaries, on the assumption that the 
included surface is all at the level of the sea. In deter- 
minations of area the unit of reference is a square de- 
gree. Since its area varies v/ith its distance from the 
equator, the area for each degree of latitude, and so that 
between the equator and any two adjacent meridians 
may be requisite as units. From the measurements of 
a standard authority on the subject^ the area of the 
earth's surface, land and water together, is computed as 
509,950,778 square kilometers or about 196,899,795 
square miles. 

The area of any country is the sum of all the square 
degrees lying entirely within its bounds, and of such 
parts of the degrees cut by the boundary as He within 
the country. The former are found from BessePs tables 
or by a geodetic formula; the latter are measured by 

• F. W. Bessel and J. J. Bayer, Gradmessung in Ostpreussen, Berlin, 
1838. Compare M. Levasseur in B. de L'lnst. Int. de Statistique, 
1886, 2dme Livraison, p. 23. 



212 Economic Studies, 

the polar planimeter on accurate maps. The maps 
of the United States, the theme of this Study, are of va- 
rying excellence and no accurate maps of the boundary 
of Alaska exist. Hence the official statement of its area 
" may easily be ten per cent, in error." ^ The boundary 
of the United States between the Lake of the Woods, 
Minnesota, and lake Superior, and between Schoodic 
lake, Maine, and the Atlantic ocean is also imperfectly 
mapped, but the possible error resulting from the un- 
certain location of these two fragments of our boundary 
is very slight. The standard measurement of the area 
of the United States was made by Mr. Henry Gannett 
and Mr. F. DeY. Carpenter in connection with the Tenth 
Census. ^ In defining the boundaries of the country, they 
excluded the sea within the three mile limit and the por- 
tions of the Great Lakes subject to the jurisdiction of the 
United States, but could state no rule with regard to the 
treatment of bays or gulfs. While Long Island sound 
was excluded, Delaware and Chesapeake bays were not. 
The area of the United States, within the limits thus de- 
fined, was measured as 3,025,600 square miles. To this 
should be added 531,000 square miles as the official es- 
timate of the area of Alaska^ and an undetermined 
amount as this country's share of the Great Lakes. The 
latter is estimated by M. Levasseur* as 133,000 square 
kilometers or about 51,350 square miles, and the total 
area of the United States excluding the sea within the 

• Mr. Henry Gannett in a personal letter to the author. 
2 Tenth Census, Bulletin, The Areas of the United States, Washing- 
ton, i88r. 
^ Eleventh Census, Alaska, p. 11. 
*0p. cit., 2^me I/ivraison, 1887, p. 204. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 213 

three mile limit would thus be about 3,607,950 square 
miles. 

Ivight is thrown upon the territorial position of the 
United States by a comparison with that of other great 
powers. The land surface of the globe is stated by va- 
rious authorities as follows : 



A tttttorttv 


Date. 


I^and surface in 


Per cent. 
of total 




square kilo- 
meters. 


square miles. 


earth's 
surface. 


Levasseur^ 

Ravenstein^ .... 
Wagner and Supan^ . 
Juraschek* 


1886 
1890 
1891 
1893 


136,100,000 

135,490,765 
135,454,265 


52,160,000 
51,250,800 
52,330000 
52,300,000 


26.5 
26.0 
26.6 
26.6 



Probably between twenty-six and twenty-seven per 
cent, of the earth's surface is land. As inland water sur- 
faces are treated differently by different authorities, the 
divergencies shown in the table may be due in part to 
differences in definition of land surface and certainly are 
due in part to differences of measurement. 

A few great powers and many minor powers possess 
this land surface. The great powers, territorially con- 
sidered, may be held to include all owning over a mil- 
lion square miles of land. Since their boundaries are 
fluctuating and ill defined, especially in South America 
and Africa, any estimate of their areas must be merely 
approximate. Hence the following table^ does not claim 
^ Op. cit., p. 237. 

2 Statesman's Year-Book, 1892, p. xxv. 

'Petermann's Mittheilungen, Krganzungsband, xxii, p xi. 

* Geographiscli-statistische Tabellen, 1893, p. 89. 

5 Compiled from the Statesman's Year-Book, 1897. 



214 



Economic Studies. 



a high degree of accuracy but still it may serve to make 
clear the relative position of the United States : 

TABLE I. 

AR^A OF C0UNTRIE:S CONTROI^IvING OVER ONE MIIvI,ION SQUARE 

MII^ES. 



COUNTRY. 



Area in square miles, 



Per cent, of 
earth's surface. 



British Empire , . 
Russian Empire . . 
Chinese Empire . . 
United States . . . 

Brazil 

France^ 

Argentine Republic 
Ottoman Empire' . 
German Empire^ . 



Total 



11,334,391 
8,660,282 
4,218,401 
3,607,950 
3,209,878 
2,804,839 

1,778,195 
1,609,240 
1,228,740 



21 7 

16.5 
8.1 
69 
6.1 
54 
34 
31 
2.3 



38,451,916 



73 5 



Among these nine great powers one is purely Asiatic, 
three purely American, and five inter-continental ; but in 
their origin seven are European and from present indi- 
cations the two non-Kuropean empires of China and 
Turkey are tottering. The table thus illustrates both 
the control of European civilization and governments 
over the world and the preeminent position territorially 
of a small number of states. Among these great powers 
the United States ranks fourth and exercises jurisdiction 
over between one-fifteenth and one-fourteenth of the 
earth's land surface. 

In the United States exclusive of Alaska, where no 
such measurements have been completed, there are about 
17,200 square miles of coast waters, 14,500 square miles of 
rivers and 75,250 square miles of lakes.^ The Great 

^ Including extensive African possessions. 

'^ Tenth Census, Bulletin, The Areas of the United States, etc., p. 5. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 215 

lyakes include over two-thirds of the lake area of the 
country. As the land surface is 2,970,000 square miles, 
about -^yi per cent, of the entire area is water. On the 
average in each ten thousand square miles of total area 
there are 56 square miles of coast waters, 47 square miles 
of rivers, and 245, or excluding the Great I^akes, 79 
square miles of lakes. 

A division conventional and temporary rather than 
natural, but important for the census, is that between 
Indian reservations and the rest of the country. Differ- 
ent agencies were employed to count their inhabitants, 
including the residents of Indian territory and Alaska. 
In 1890 there were 180,884 square miles of reservations, 
or 6 per cent, of the area of the country.^ Their extent, 
however, is rapidly decreasing. Between 1890 and 1896 
they decreased to 130,320 square miles, or nearly 28 
per cent.^ 

The United States, exclusive of purely national terri- 
tory, namely, the Great Lakes, Delaware, Raritan and 
lower New York bays, is divided into fifty-one political 
divisions, of which forty-four at the date of the last 
census were states.^ The Yellowstone National Park 
and No Man's I^and are apparently included for purposes 
of measurement within state bounds. Messrs. Gannett 
and Carpenter have measured the area of each state ex- 

^ Eleventh Census, Indians, p. 91. 

- Report of the Commissioner of Indian Affairs, 1896. p. 495. 

^ For the sake of brevity the word state or states will be applied 
henceforth, unless otherwise indicated, to all primarv divisions of the 
country including Alaska, Arizona, Indian, New Mexico, Oklahoma 
and Utah territories and the District of Columbia. 



2i6 Economic Studies. 

cept Alaska in the manner already explained^ and ad- 
justed the results to that obtained for the country. 
But as their boundaries have been surveyed and mapped 
less accurately than the national boundary and in cer- 
tain instances, e. g.^ between Virginia and West Virginia, 
are very ill ascertained, the area of a state may be 
deemed, in nearly every case, less accurate than that of 
the country. Colorado, Wyoming and Utah, being 
bounded entirely by parallels or meridians, are ex- 
ceptions. In the table on page 218, in which the states 
are arranged in order of size, it will be noticed that the 
numbers expressing the areas of the states all end in a 
cipher or a five. Hence they cannot be accurate to a 
square mile. In a personal letter from which I am per- 
mitted to quote, Mr. Gannett says : " The areas cannot 
be given with such accuracy as to make it worth while 

^Sources. — The areas of the United States, of the states and territo- 
ries, and of the counties and parishes, at the date of the nth census, 
are stated in Census Bulletin 23, dated Jan. 21, 1891, and prepared 
"primarily for the use of the Census Office." The Bulletin gives the 
gross area, the land surface, and the water surface of the primary 
divisions of the country, and the land surface of each county and 
parish, except in the case of Oklahoma. It is apparently the standard 
authority for the area of the United States, its figures are repeated in 
standard English and Continental publications, and I am not ac- 
quainted with any independent determinations of area for the whole 
country with which its results may be compared. 

The area of each city of over 10,000 inhabitants was asked on the 
schedule of questions relating to the social statistics of cities, and the 
areas of fifty of these cities have been published in Census Bulletin 
100, Social Statistics of Cities. 

The areas of the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut 
and New Jersey, and of their counties and towns, townships or bor- 
oiughs, as they stood about 1890, have been published in recent bulle- 
tins of the United States Geological Survey, numbers 115-118. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 217 

to give the unit figures exactly excepting in tlie case of 
two or three states, and rather than give an incorrect: 
impression of accuracy, I judged it best to round them; 
up to the nearest five or ten square miles." 

The water surface of each state except Alaska has- 
been approximately determined under the categories of 
lakes, rivers and coast waters/ From these measure-- 
ments the proportion of each kind of water surface to 
the whole area of the state has been computed and is 
also included in the table on the following page. 

On examining the second column two gaps in the 
series may be noticed between Georgia and Washington 
and between Maryland and West Virginia. All states 
above Missouri are larofer than the averag-e for the 
country, which is 69,723 square miles, and Missouri and, 
Washington are larger than the average for the country, 
exclusive of Alaska. The states then fall into three 
groups of large, medium and small. All states with 
more than 60,000 square miles lie west of the Mississippi, 
and including Alaska cover over nine- tenths of that 
region. All with less than 15,000 square miles except 
Vermont touch the Atlantic north of the Potomac. The 
medium sized states lie between the small and the large. 
The large states include 68 per cent, of the country's area, 
the medium states, 30.5 per cent, and the sttiall states 
about 1.5 per cent. The third column in Table II shows 
where the largest proportion of lake surface is found. 
The most extensive lake region is in the vicinity of the 
Great Lakes. From Minnesota to the Atlantic eveiy 

'Tenth Census, Bulletin, The Areas of the United States, etc., p. 4, 



2l8 



Economic Studies. 



TABLE II. 

GROSS AR:eA OF THE) STATES AND PROPORTION OF COAST WATFR. 
I,AKF AND RIVER SURFACE. 



STATES. 



Alaska 

Texas . . 

California 

Montana 

New Mexico . . . 

Arizona 

Nevada 

Colorado 

Wyoming . . . . . 

Oregon 

Utah 

Idaho 

Minnesota .... 

Kansas 

South Dakota . . 
Nebraska .... 
North Dakota . . 

Missouri 

Washington . . . 

Georgia 

Michigan .... 

Florida 

Illinois 

Wisconsin .... 

low^a 

Arkansas .... 
Alabama .... 
North Carolina . 
New York .... 
Louisiana .... 
Mississippi . . . 
Pennsylvania . . 

Virginia 

Tennessee. . . . 

Ohio 

Kentucky .... 
Oklahoma .... 

Indiana 

Maine 

Indian territory 
South Carolina . 
West Virginia . . 
.Maryland .... 
Vermont .... 
New Hampshire 
Massachusetts . 
New Jersey . . . 
Connecticut . . . 
Delaware .... 
Rhode Island . . 



District of Columbia 



United States 1 



Gross 
area. 



531,000 ( 

265,780 

158,360 

146,080 

122,580 

113,020 

110,700 

103,925 

97,890 

96,030 

84,970 

84,800 

83,365 
82,080 

77,650 
77,510 
70,795 
69,415 
69,180 

59,475 

58,915 

58,680 

56,650 

56,040 

56,025 

53,850 

52,250 

52,250 

49,170 

48,720 

46,810 

45,215 

42,450 

42,050 

41,060 

40,400 

39,030 

36,350 

33,040 

31,400 

30,570 

24, 780 

12,210 

9,565 

9,305 

8,315 

7,815 

4,990 

2,050 

1,250 

70 



3,076,950 



Square Miles in 10,000 of area. 



Lake. River. 



7 
100 

25 



23 

96 

318 

38 
456 



7 

52 

8 

208 

384 

24 

209 

21 

49 
2 

33 
183 
350 

21 

7 
6 

24 

39 

6 



30 

697 

? 



398 
237 
108 

45 
80 



160 



245 



30 

15 
28 

9 

7 

3 

26 

9 

52 
9 
24 
43 
46 

7> 

82 
? 



51 

44 
67 
91 
75 
73 
100 



61 
III 

73 

44 

123 

48 

34 

93 
? 

91 
91 
? 

59 

55 

410 

52 

86 

72 

154 

160 

291 

80 

1429 



47 



Coast 
•waters. 



95 

34 



200 
25 



307 
6 



625 

71 

218 

6 



420 



165 

71 

1515 



151 
262 

50 

146 

1080 



56 



Total. 



1 Excluding Alaska and the sea within the three mile limit but including Dela- 
■ware, Raritan and lower New York bays and this country's portion of the Great 
J^akes. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 219 

state on the northern boundary of the country except 
Ohio, and every New England state except Connecticut, 
has over one per cent, of its area in lakes. The same is 
true of Florida, Louisiana, California and Utah. From the 
fourth column it appears that the largest proportion of 
river surface is found along the Atlantic coast in Con- 
necticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia, 
and also in the lower Mississippi valley, in Arkansas 
and Louisiana, each of these states having over one per 
cent, of river surface. 

The states which had over five per cent, of their area 
in Indian reservations in 1890 were : 

Per cent, of 
States. area in ] ndian 

reservations. 

Indian territory 100 

Oklahoma 48 

South Dakota 47 

New Mexico 13 

Montana ii 

Washington 9 

Minnesota 9 

Arizona 9 

Utah 8 

North Dakota 7 

Idaho 5 

It will be seen that they lie mainly west of the 
Mississippi along the northern and southern boundaries 
of the country. 

In the census volumes ^ the fifty states of the Union 
excluding Alaska are divided into five geographical 

^ See for example the Abstract of the Eleventh Census, second edi- 
tion, p. 10. The student should have this excellent hand-book at his 
side. References will be made to it, rather than to the large volumes, 
wherever possible. .- ***~^ 



220 Economic Studies. 

groups, the north Atlantic, south Atlantic, north cen- 
tral, south central and western. The primary line of 
division is perhaps that between the Rocky Mountain 
and Pacific Coast states and those lying east of the great 
plateau. It follows the meridian of 104 degrees west, 
i. ^., the western boundary of the Dakotas, or the state 
boundary nearest thereto. It also coincides roughly 
with the line of 5,000 feet of altitude. Only a trifling 
part of the area to the east of it rises above that eleva- 
tion, while fully half of the land to the v/est is more 
than that height above the sea level. 

The states east of this line are divided upon geo- 
graphic, historic and economic grounds into north and 
south. The division is made by a line coinciding in the 
main with that separating the former slave states from 
the free states. It follows Mason and Dixon's line, the 
Ohio river, and the parallel of 36 degrees 30 minutes, 
or the state line nearest to that, until it intersects the 
division line between the central and western states. 
Missouri is thus classed with the north and Oklahoma 
with the south. Bach of the southern states as thus 
defined, except West Virginia and Oklahomia, has over 
ten per cent, of negroes in its population, while this is 
true of no northern state. 

The last division, that between the Atlantic and the 
central states, follows as nearly as the state lines allow 
the height of land separating the two drainage areas but 
is invariably somewhat to the west of this natural divi- 
sion. West Virginia is the only exception. While 
most! of the state sends its rainfall to the Ohio river it 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 221 

is classed for historic reasons among the Atlantic states, 
and while it has a smaller proportion of negroes than 
any other southern state, or than Missouri of the north- 
ern, it is classed for the same reason among the southern 
states. 

With the exception of the District of Columbia and 
Alaska, each of the fifty-one primary divisions of the 
country is subdivided territorially. In 1890 there were 
about twenty-eight hundred (2790) of these subdivisions, 
or counties as they are almost uniformly called. This 
includes the District of Columbia, the parishes of I^ouisi- 
ana, the six reservations of Indian territory, and two 
parcels of unorganized territory about the size of counties, 
one in North Dakota and one in Nebraska. For the 
sake of brevity all these secondary divisions will hence- 
forward be called counties. The average size of a 
county in the United States is rather more than one thou- 
sand (1085) square miles and the range is from Bristol 
county, Rhode Island, with only twenty-five square miles 
to Yavapai county, Arizona, over one thousand times as 
large (29,236 square miles). It is not generally true, 
however, that the smallest states have the smallest 
counties. On the contrary the smallest counties occur 
as a rule in the border states east of the Mississippi 
river where their average size is less than five hundred 
square miles, as a little computation will readily con- 
vince the reader. 

The areas of the country and of the states published 
in connection with the census of 1880 were not changed 
for the census of 1890. But the areas of the counties 



222 Economic Studies. 

were " thoroughly revised " ^ involving a correction on 
the average of perhaps five per cent., a part of which 
may have been due to changes during the decade in the 
location of county boundaries, but more to increased 
accuracy of measurement. The method of measure- 
ment resembled that employed for the country and the 
states : that is, the area of each state was the starting 
point and the county areas, determined primarily by the 
polar planimeter, were corrected by a reference to the 
requisite total ; but as the mapping of county lines is 
generally less accurate than that of state boundaries, the 
probable error in county areas is greater. Mr. Gannett 
writes me : " Excepting where we have accurate maps of 
county boundaries, the areas given can be regarded only 
as very rough approximations and this is true in all the 
eastern states and especially so in those of the south 
where the location of county boundaries is not repre- 
sented alike upon any two maps." 

In Rhode Island, where the Geological Survey also 
has determined the land surface of the counties, the re- 
sults of the two are comparable, and show an average 
variation of six per cent.^ The results of the Geological 
Survey in New Jersey were the basis of the census 
figures, and in Massachusetts and Connecticut the former 
gives the gross area, not the land surface. If both were 
accurate in the latter states, the Geological Survey fig- 
ures would form a maximum limit not exceeded in any 

1 Eleventh Census, Bulletin 23, p. i. Compare Tenth Census, Bul- 
letin, The Areas of the U. S., etc. 

2 The land surface of the counties of Rhode Island is given as fol- 
lows in the two authorities : 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 223 



case by those of the census. In fact the land surface of 
eight of the twenty-two counties is stated by the census 
bulletin as greater than their gross area indicated by 
the Geological Survey, a proof of not a little inaccuracy 
in one or the other/ 

Such discrepancies have made it seem worth while to 
attempt a determination of the probable error in the 
official census statement of county areas. The simplest 
method to follow would be a repetition of planimetric 
measurements on our most accurate county maps, the 
United States post route maps. This method has al- 
ready been employed by a German critic and the results 
in three cases published,^ but it is obviously open to the 
objection that in those maps the county lines may have 
been inaccurately drawn. Far more accurate than those 
are the maps of the United States Coast and Geodetic 
Survey and of the United States Lake Survey, but these 
latter represent only natural not political divisions and 



COUNTIES. 


Geological 

Survey 
Bulletin. 


Census 
Bulletin 

23- 


Per cent, 
of varia- 
tion. 


Bristol 

Kent 

Newport 

Providence 


25 
169 
117 
411 
331 


25 
180 
ICG 
440 
340 




7 

15 

7 

3 


Washington 




Total 


1,053 


1,085 





^ For example the Survey bulletin gives the gross area of Berkshire 
county, Mass., as 942 and of Norfolk county, Mass., as 433 square 
miles, while the census gives the laud surface alone of the same 
counties as 959 and 494 square miles. 

^ Cf. Petermann's Geographische Mittheilungen, Brganzungsbaude 
17 -18, No. 84, p. 4, footnote. 



224 



Eco7ioinic Studies. 



include only our boundary districts. There are, however, 
six cases in which natural divisions between land and 
water coincide with county lines ; in other words along the 
boundary of the United States there are six islands or 
groups of islands which are also counties. They are 
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, Long island, Staten 
island. Isle Royale and Beaver, Pox and Manitou 
islands. Long island is divided into three counties, and 
is the only island containing more than one. The areas 
of these counties on the Coast Survey or Lake Survey 
charts have been twice measured carefully by Mr. 
J. F. Hay ford, C.B., formerly of the United States Coast 
Survey and now of Cornell university, and from his 
results I have prepared the following table : 

TABLE III. 

COMPARISON OF MEASURED I,AND SURFACE OF CERTAIN COUNTIES 
IN SQUARE MII.es WITH CENSUS FIGURES. 









1 






Per Cent. 














of varia- 


COUNTY 






Area by- 


Area by 


Area by- 


tion of 


ISLAND OR 


Meas- 


Census 


Census 


other 


census 


AND 


GROUP. 


ured 


Bulletin, 


Bulletin, 


an hori- 


1890 area 


STATE. 




area. 


1880. 


1890. 


ties. 


from 
measure- 















ment. 




Martha's 








Dukes, Mass. 


Vineyard. 


103.4 


120 


124 


IIO^ 


20 


Nantucket, *' 


Nantucket. . 


49-7 


60 


65 


51* 


3t 


Kings, Queens 














and Suffolk, 














New York . 


Long island . 


1353-8 


IIIO 


IC07 


i682t 


25 


Ricbmonrl, 














New York. 


Staten island. 


55-7 


60 


61 


59t 


10 


Manitou, 


Beaver, Fox 












Mich. 


and Manitou 


109.3 


200 


120 


. . . . 


10 


Isle Royale, 














Mich. 


Isle Royale . 


203.7 


230 


215 

1 


.... 


5 



*U. S. Geological Survey, Bulletin 116. 
t New York Census of 1875, p. 264. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 225 

If these instances were typical, the county areas in 
Census Bulletin 23 were in error by an average amount 
of 17 per cent. But the north central and western 
states are probably better mapped and measured than 
these results would indicate. It should also be re- 
marked that in four of the six cases the changes made 
in 1890 resulted in greater inaccuracy than before. 
It has surprised me to find that the area of Long is- 
land, perhaps the largest and certainly the most impor- 
tant island in the country, has not been determined to 
within twenty-five per cent. The latest Federal author- 
ity, as appears from the preceding table, gives it as 1007 
square miles, while what is I believe the latest state au- 
thority, the state census of 1875, basing itself directly 
upon Hough's Gazetteer and ultimately upon French's 
Gazetteer of i860, gives its area as 1682 square miles. 
The latter is the authority followed by such good second- 
ary sources as the last editions of the Encyclopaedia 
Britannica and Johnson's Cyclopaedia. It will be seen 
that the state and Federal authorities differ by over six 
hundred and fifty square miles and that each is over 
three hundred miles wide of the truth as first established 
by Mr. Hayford's measurements. ^ 

^ To illustrate the care with which his v/ork has been done I append 
his report to nie on the measurement of the area of Long island. The 
map from which liis measurements vv^ere made was the Coast and 
Geodetic Survey Chart, No. 52, " Montauk Point to New York." It 
will be seen that his two determinations differ by less than a fourth 
of one per cent. He is confident that the errors of measurement as 
distinguished from the errors of the map are well within one per cent. 

LiNCOiwN Hai,!,, April 29, 1896. 
Prof. W. F. Willcox : 

D^AR Sir — By the use of the polar planimeter on the C. & G. S. 



226 Eco7iomic Studies. 

The census makes no sfeneral effort to determine the 
area of divisions smaller than counties, except in 
the case of large cities. The areas of fifty of these 
are stated in one of the bulletins and assurance is 
given that they " have been either determined by actual 
measurements from latest obtainable maps or from re- 
cords in oihces of the several city engineers."^ The 
areas of nearly all the cities and towns of Massachusetts, 
Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey are given in 
recent bulletins of the United States Geological Sur- 
vey. Eleven of the fifty cities included in Census Bul- 
letin loo are in these four states and six other cities are co- 
extensive v/itli counties of the same name. Hence for 
one-third of the fifty cities there are two independent and 
comparable determinations of area. The general result 

map which you furnished, I have obtained the following results. 
Long island was for convenience divided into seven sections, arbitra- 
rily, and the area of each section measured twice. 

Sq. stat. miles Sq. stat. miles 

No. of Section. ist measurement. 2d measurement. 

I 129 6 127,2 

2 246.6 246.1 

3 334- i 335.2 

4 9-0 9-9 

5 • * . . 287.1 2S6.4 

6 253.9 256.2 

7 95-1 9^-2 

Total area 1355-4 1352.2 

Mean of two measurnients = 1353. <S sq. miles. 
The method used eliminates the effect of the shritikage of the paper 
on which the map was printed, — each portion of the area being com- 
pared with the area of the circumscribing rectangle formed by printed 
meridians and parallels. Yours respectfully, 

John F. Hayford. 

^Eleventh Census, Bulletin 100, p. 5. 



Area of the United States and its Divisions. 227 

of a comparison is to reveal occasional discrepancies 
too wide to be due to variations of measurement ; e.g.^ 
St. Louis 48 and 61 square miles, San Francisco 50 
and 15, New Orleans 187 and 37, Holyoke 4 and 18. 
An explanation is found in the fact that for the bulletin 
on the Social Statistics of Cities only the built up area 
of certain cities was measured. This fact is not stated 
in the bulletin itself but has been authoritatively ad- 
mitted to me in correspondence. As there is no way to 
decide for what cities it is true, it is impossible to accept 
the careful measurements in that bulletin since we can 
not tell what area was measured. Still it may be men- 
tioned that among the populous cities of the country 
there are apparently only two of great area, Chicago and 
Philadelphia. They are said to include respectively 161 
and 129 square miles, while the third in size, St. Louis, 
contains only 61, and New York only 40 square miles. 
The preceding analysis points to the conclusion that 
owing primarily to the inaccurate or incomplete surveys 
upon which reliance must often be placed, the deter- 
minations of area of the United States, and of its 
political divisions large and small, are not to be 
accepted without hesitation. It may serve also as an 
example of a kind of interpretative criticism which, al- 
though perhaps impracticable under past conditions, 
would be extremely desirable from the compilers and 
editors of our official statistics. They could prepare it 
more easily and accurately than a private individual un- 
familiar with the processes by which statistical results 
have been secured. Notwithstanding these reasons for 



228 Economic Studies, 

its inclusion, so detailed a criticism of what is merely 
preliminary to the study of social statistics would hardly 
be in place, were it not hoped that it would conduce to 
awaken in the beginner an attitude of independent in- 
quiry and a refusal to accept on authority any fact which 
may be made for him to rest on a better foundation. 
Such an attitude is an indispensable prerequisite to the 
successful study of statistics and one difficult to establish 
in an untrained mind. 



CHAPTER II. 

POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS DIVISIONS. 

The word population means the number of living hu- 
man beings. Yet along with this, its usual present mean- 
ing, there occurs a secondary one of importance in the his- 
tory of political economy and statistics, viz., increase in 
the number of human beings. While the classical 
writers on political economy use the word in both senses 
or equivocally, in the title and pages of Malthus's 
Principle of Population, and in the discussions it has 
aroused, emphasis is laid upon the idea of increase. 
Ivight is thrown upon this double meaning by the his- 
tory of the word. While Bacon employed it in substan- 
tially its present meaning, it seems not to have become 
current in the European languages until the last century, 
and then often if not usually with the active sense of in- 
crease more or less clearly marked. ^ This meaning of 
population, like the original meaning of statistics, is now 
of importance only to the historian or the critic. 

^ Its use in this active sense during the latter half of the last century 
may be illustrated by the following quotations from German, French, 
English and American sources : 

1761 : Suessmilch, The population {Bevolkerung) of a state as a duty 

of its ruler. 
1772: Raynal, The surest proof of the population [population) of 

the human species is the depopulation of other species. 
1776 : Declaration of Independence, He has endeavored to prevent 

the population of these states. 
1798: Mai thus, Rapid population. 



230 Eco7iomic Studies. 

As the number of human beings is A^ariable in time, 
increasing with births and decreasing with deaths, the 
concept must be limited by a reference to some definite 
point or period of time. By the last census of the 
United States the time was fixed as the first day of 
June, 1890. All inhabitants living on that day and no 
others were enumerated. Concerning the manner in 
which the several thousand persons born or dying on that 
day were to be entered no instructions were given to the 
enumerators. The foreign practice is to make a census 
speak as of a certain moment, commonly midnight, of 
the enumeration day, and the practice is theoretically 
preferable to our own. The concept must be limited 
also in space to a certain country or part of a 
country. In the case of area the whole is known better 
than its parts, and is the standard by reference to which 
the parts are corrected ; in the present subject the pri- 
mary datum is the population of the parts from which 
that of the whole is laboriously and imperfectly con- 
structed. But in defining population with reference to 
any part of the earth's surface, difficulties at once arise 
from the mobility of human beings. 

The population of a country having a census is 
merely the sum of the populations of the districts into 
which it is divided for enumeration and each of these 
in the United States is supposed ordinarily to contain 
about four thousand inhabitants. ^ Hence the basal 
definition is that of the population not of a country, 

'" The subdivision assigned to any enumerator shall not exceed 
four thousand inhabitants as near as may be, according to estimates 
based on the Tenth Census." Census J^aw of March i, 1889, \ 12. 



Population of the Ufiited States and its Divisions. 231 

state, county or city, but of an enumeration district. By 
what criterion shall an enumerator on his round decide 
whether any person he meets belongs to the population 
of his district ? The International Statistical Congress 
at St. Petersburg in 1872, in voting that general censuses 
of population should include all persons present in the 
enumerator's district at the moment to which the census 
relates, offered an answer to the question, which has the 
advantage of furnishing the enumerator with a simple 
test question, " Were you in my district, i. e.^ within 
certain known boundaries, at a certain recent moment?" 
This is now the method almost universally followed in 
Europe. But where it is employed the census must be 
taken with great speed, the common European practice 
being to complete the primary enumeration within twen- 
ty-four hours, and it is doubtful whether such expedition 
would be practicable under American conditions. At 
present the field work in the national census may by law 
occupy two weeks in a city of over ten thousand people 
and a month elsewhere,^ and in practice does not fall 
much within that. 

While under the terms of the constitution of the 
United States^ the census is to include " the whole num- 
ber of persons in each state excluding Indians not taxed, " 
Congress has uniformly interpreted the word " numbers, " 
or the phrase, " persons in each state, " to mean the in- 
habitants rather than the persons physically present in 
each district, and the states have followed the same prac- 

' Ibid., §19. 

'Amendments, Article xiv, §2. Compare Constitution, Art. i, \ 2. 



232 Economic Studies. 

tice. Each, enumerator, accordingly, must take oatli that 
he will count all the inhabitants of his district,^ and the 
implied test of inhabitancy is having one's " usual place 
of abode " ^ in the district. In explanation of this am- 
biguous phrase the Instructions to Enumerators at 
the last census says : " It is difficult to afford administra- 
tive directions which will wholly obviate the danger 
that some persons will be reported in two places and 
others not reported at all. Much must be left to the 
judgment of the enumerator, " ( p. 21 ) . As the latter 
may wish to show that his district or city compares fa- 
vorably with that of others and as his pay depends upon 
the number of names secured rather than on the hours 
worked, ^ he may be expected to include on his schedules 
most of the doubtful cases which come to his knowledge. 
This consideration raises the large and difficult problem 
of the accuracy of the census of 1890. 

This Study is based upon the Eleventh Census and 
yet, as already shown in the previous chapter, the entire 
trustworthiness of that basis cannot be assumed. Neither 
can it be proved at the outset. On the contrary it must 
be accepted as a working hypothesis to be constantly 
tested and if necessary corrected or rejected as the results 
of investigation require. The ability to probe a census 
and to form an independent and reasoned judgment upon 
its accuracy is perhaps as high evidence as can be given 
that one has served his apprenticeship to the statistical 

^ Census L/aw, \ 8. 
'Ibid., ^9. 
*Ibid., \\\. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 233 

method and mastered it. Hence at the start only a few 
general snggestions are in place. 

A census is not a unit or an organic whole, but a col- 
lection and interpretation of the answers to a long series 
of questions set all over a country and to all classes of 
society. The answers vary in accuracy with the region 
atid social class from which they come, and with the 
character of the question asked. Answers from Massa- 
chusetts or Rhode Island, where regular and careful 
state censuses contribute to maintain a statistical tradi- 
tion among the people, are more trustworthy than 
answers from New Mexico. Answers from whites are 
probably more correct than answers from negroes. A 
citizen will give the place of his birth more correctly on 
the average than the information whether he is a pauper 
or a sufferer from chronic disease. Hence finding the 
accuracy of a census is not a single or simple problem, 
but can result only from finding the accuracy with 
which each question was answered and balancing the 
results. Rarely if ever is a census so ill taken that no 
conclusions are to be derived from a critical use of its 
figures ; rarely if ever is one so well taken that all it 
contains may be accepted without criticism and at its 
face value. 

But the number of people in a country is the primary 
fact derived from a census and therefore to dispute a 
census is commonly and naturally understood to apply 
to that alone. After the trustworthiness of this result has 
been investigated, however, that of every other return 
on which inference or argument is based should be made, 



234 Economic Studies. 

if possible, tlie theme of a separate study, a requisite not 
infrequently ignored, but one on whicli unfortunate 
experience leads me to insist. 

Errors may creep into a census through blunders of 
the public, of the enumerators, or of the central office. 
Blunders of the public are either ignorant or wilful. Of 
the persons visited some are unable to answer the ques- 
tions put to them. Many would not know their "age 
at nearest birthday ". Many who would be offended by 
doubt of their ability to answer so plain a question 
would give their age at the last birthday ; of such re- 
plies about half must be wrong. Unwillingness to 
answer is a more serious cause of error than inability. 
Many persons born abroad, would return themselves as 
native. Some would be unwilling to admit service in 
the Confederate army, others the mixture of negro blood, 
others that they were divorced, others inability to read 
or write. But perhaps the questions which at the 
Eleventh Census aroused most widespread dissatisfaction, 
and were probably answered with least correctness, were 
those in reference to acute or chronic diseases, bodily or 
mental defects, delinquency or dependency. The accu- 
racy of answers to these questions must be established or 
the results treated as giving merely a minimum. To 
demand such information tends to arouse in the public 
mind an antagonism to the entire work which may seri- 
ously impair the accuracy of other answers, for its suc- 
cess depends largely upon a public cooperation that is 
easily forfeited. An active desire to mislead occasion- 
ally appears on a large scale, especially in the case of 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 235 

rival cities, in deliberate exaggeration of the number of 
people. Conspicuous instances at the last census were 
those of Minneapolis and to a less degree St. Paul ; in 
each a recount was ordered. In these instances the 
enumerators divided the responsibility with the public. 

The errors of enumerators are likely to vary, first, with 
the character of the men and this probably with the 
method of their appointment, secondly, with the lucidity 
and detail of their instructions and the means taken to 
secure a mastery of those instructions before the field 
work begins, thirdly, with the care and success with 
which the field work is superintended, and fourthly, with 
the method of their payment. 

The errors of the central office are either clerical mis- 
takes in copying or tabulating results, a large proportion 
of which are discovered and corrected in the progress of 
the work, or errors of analysis and interpretation of re- 
sults. The former class are usually beyond detection 
by the private student, but fortunately are seldom of 
material importance ; the latter are sometimes serious and 
misleadino-. 

Prior to the commencement of work on the Eleventh 
Census the attitude of the public towards such statistical 
work was probably more favorable than ever before. 
The rapid dissemination of elementary education had 
been helpful. Statistical arguments and with them a 
realization of the importance of statistics had become 
more common. More states than previously had taken 
censuses of their own and so educated the public to ex- 
pect such questions. The appointment of the superin- 



236 Econoynic Studies, 

tendent of the Eleventh Census, however, was not re- 
ceived with as general and deep popular satisfaction as 
that of his predecessor, General Francis A. Walker. 
Upon the results of a census depend the distribution of 
seats and possibly the balance of power in the House of 
Representatives. A department which has to furnish 
the facts upon which the decision of these questions is 
based should be as free from suspicion of partizan bias 
as the Supreme Court, and the work of a census ofhcer is 
probably more completely separable from politics than 
is that of a judge. However high the qualifications of 
the superintendent of the Eleventh Census for his posi- 
tion may have been, he had not at the time of his ap- 
pointment earned a national reputation as an im- 
partial statistician at all comparable with that of his 
predecessor. He was known to have done much work 
for leading newspapers of his political party. I cannot 
but think, therefore, tliat the appointment did not 
deepen the popular faith that the approaching census 
would be accurate and impartial, and such faith is almost 
an indispensable prerequisite of thoroughly satisfactory 
work. Further doubt and opposition were aroused in 
certain quarters by the failure to employ competitive 
examinations in selecting subordinate employees. 
Whether the responsibility rested upon Congress which 
passed the law or upon some one or more of the execu- 
tive officers who carried it into effect is immaterial to 
my contention. The claim that the method^ employed 
in the Tenth Census were being followed did not dis- 
arm the criticism ; the civil service law had been passed 



Populatio7i of the United States and its Divisions. 237 

in the interim and public opinion had altered. Evi- 
dence was offered in the press that enumerators were 
appointed at the suggestion of party leaders.' The 
supervisor of the New York city district was charged 
with the appointment of about eight hundred enumera- 
tors. A prominent metropolitan paper printed a circular 
letter alleged to have been sent by him to local Republi- 
can politicians and reading as follows : " Dear Sir : Will 
you please forward to this office the list of applicants 
that the Republican organization of your district desires 
to have named as census enumerators ? " ^ Statements 
were published that some enumerators were unable to 
read or write,^ that others had their photographs in the 
Rogues' Gallery.^ The circulation of such assertions 
whether true or false could not but impair the popiilar 
confidence in the census. 

Evidence of careful supervision of the work, however, 
is offered by the instructions sent out to the forty thou- 
sand enumerators connected with the census. They fill a 
pamphlet of 46 pages, are more than twice the length of 
the instructions issued for the preceding census and show 
in many ways an advance in lucidity and detail. No 
light has been found upon the question whether the enu- 
merators were compelled to master these instructions be- 
fore entering upon their duties or whether their reports 
day by day were carefully scrutinized to insure conform- 

' Civil Service Record, April, 189 1, p. 102. 

' Nation, 51 : 224. 

'Civil Service Record, August, 1890, p. 12. 

* Letter of W. D. Foulke, N. Y. Daily Times, Nov. 15, 1890, p. 5. 



238 Economic Studies. 

ity. They were paid usually at tlie rate of two cents 
for each name returned, but in sparsely settled districts 
somewhat more. ^ This method of payment, while 
tempting the enumerator to include all doubtful names 
even at the risk of double enumeration, also invites him 
to pass by those whom it is more than two cents' worth 
of trouble to reach. 

The methods of impeaching a census may be grouped 
into four classes : 

I. It may be proved that faults existed either in the 
census law or in the organization or administration of 
the working force and that their inevitable or natural 
result would be serious inaccuracies of enumeration. 2. 
Inferences logically drawn from different parts of a census 
may prove to be irreconcilable. 3. The results may be 
compared with those obtained by another count, which 
was taken at about the same time and proved to be 
more accurate. 4. The results may be compared with 
those of a series of enumerations before and after the one 
in question, on the assumption that a general uniformity 
in the rate of change should appear and that any wide 
and unexplained variation from it is evidence of error. 
These lines of attack find partial illustration in the ar- 
guments by which all critics have been convinced that 
serious errors crept into the Ninth Census and that the 
Tenth was more correct than any previous one. After 
years of attempted administration of the law of 1850, un- 
der which the Ninth Census was taken, General Walker 
pointed out its faults. It laid the supervision of the 

^ Census I^aw, ^ ir. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 239 

enumeration in each district upon an officer already bur- 
dened with other duties and gave the census office no 
control over him. Under such circumstances, the office 
disclaimed responsibility for the results reported. ^ And 
again, when the results of the census of 1880 in parts of 
the south indicated an incredible increase of population 
in the preceding decade, a recount was ordered in some 
localities with results uniformly confirming the later and 
discrediting the earlier enumeration. 

In all these four ways critics have sought to impeach 
the Eleventh Census. A brief summary of the conclu- 
sions to which I have been brought with my reasons for 
holding them is here presented. 

The law under which the last census was taken is sub- 
stantially a re-enactment or the law of 1879. ^^ ^^^ 
earlier law General Walker said in his official report, 
written after he had been administering its provisions 
for six months : " The legislation of the last Congress 
on the subject of the census was wise and salutary. Not 
a single fundamental defect in the scheme of enumera- 
tion has appeared. " ^ The superintendent of the Eleventh 
Census called to his aid many of the most valued assistants 
at the previous count. He says : '' Five-sixths of all the 
experts and chiefs had experience in the Tenth Census," ^ 
and that sixteen of the twenty-five divisions were in 
charge of the same men who were over them in 1880. "* 

" Report of Superinteudeat of Census. Tenth Census, Compendium, 
Part I, p. ix. 

^ Ibid., p. xxxiv. 

^Kleventh Census, Compendium, Part i, p. xxxii. 

*R. P. Porter, Partisanship and the Census. North American Rev., 
151 :662. 



240 Economic Studies, 

Over against these facts should be set two charges which, 
in my opinion, have not been adequately met, first, that 
the career and published work of Mr. Porter were not 
those of an independent and judicial statistician and, 
secondly, that in the appointment of enumerators and 
other subordinates, there is reason to believe that the let- 
ter and spirit of the census law requiring enumerators 
to be " selected solely with reference to fitness and with- 
out reference to their political party affiliations, " ^ were 
less strictly interpreted and enforced in 1890 than in 
1880. In addition to the evidence already cited upon 
this point, I am allowed to quote the following from a 
personal letter written to me in 1896 by Dr. John Shaw 
Billings, who was in charge of the division of Vital Sta- 
tistics at the Eleventh Census : 

" The whole of my work in the census has been done 
in the face of great obstacles, owing to repeated changes 
of clerks for political reasons, etc., and I am tired of 
struggling with the most unpropitious circumstances 
which have surrounded the work." It seems probable 
that the law under which the Eleventh Census was 
taken was better than any prior to 1879, ^^^ that its 
administration was somewhat inferior to that of the 
Tenth Census. 

Arguments based upon the apparent inconsistency of 
different parts of the census are best presented in con- 
nection with the topics to which they relate and their 
consideration is, therefore, postponed. 

Recounts of the entire population occurred, so far as 

^ Laws of 1879 and 1889, § 5. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 241 

I have ascertained, in the case of four cities, St. Paul 
and Minneapolis, Minn., Helena, Mont, and Portland, 
Ore. In each case important errors were discovered 
either before or during the recount. Partial recounts 
were ordered in other places with results confirming 
the figures originally given to the public. 

The fourth and most important method of attack is 
not yet fully possible. It was not until the results of 
the census of 1880 were published and confirmed that 
those of the Ninth Census were generally discredited, 
and the best test of the correctness of the Eleventh Cen- 
sus will be the degree to which it conforms to the 
Twelfth and subsequent counts. 

The recent appearance of the results of many state 
censuses, however, permits a partial application of this 
line of criticism. The method employed in such a test 
is to assume that the population of a state was correctly 
enumerated at the censuses next before and after that of 
1890, and from these two fixed points to compute what it 
was at that date. Wide and frequent variations be- 
tVi^een such estimates and the results of the Eleventh 
Census would be suspicious. General agreement be- 
tvv^een them v/ould be strong proof of the accuracy of 
the disputed facts. Close and constant correspondence 
is not to be anticipated. 

In order to apply this test, I have sent a circular let- 
ter to the secretary of state of each state in which, either 
from the recent report of the Commissioner of Labor upon 
a plan for a permanent census bureau^ or from the World 

^ Fifty -fourt.il Congress, Second Session, Senate Document, No. 5, 
p. II, (December, 1896). 



242 Economic Studies. 

Almanac for 1897/ I had reason to believe that an enum- 
eration had been made since 1890. The letter asked for 
the year and month of the state census and for the total 
population enumerated, but in many replies only the 
year was stated. In those cases I have assumed that the 
census was taken in June. From the answers the table 
on the following page has been compiled '? 

From the figures thus brought together it is possible 
to compute the population of each state at the date of 
the Eleventh Census, June, 1890, and to compare the 
result with the figures in dispute. For this purpose two 
methods are in use, the arithmetical and the geometrical, 
the former assuming that a given population increases 
by a constant number in a unit of time like a year, and 
the latter assuming that the population increases by a 

1 Page 378. 

2 The Indiana secretary of state wrote: " No census of the state 
of Indiana has been made since that of 1890, except that made in 
April of 1895, giving the voting population of the state." For this 
reason Indiana, although included in the Commissioner of I^abor's 
list, has been omitted. Oklahoma and South Dakota had no 
census prior to 1890. No reply was received from the secretary of 
state of Tennessee, Kansas is omitted because of the confessed in- 
completeness of the enumeration in 1895. The Oregon census of 1885 
has been disregarded because the slight increase it showed over the 
census of 1880 arouses suspicion that like the last census of Kansas, it 
was incomplete. The bitter coniroversy over the accuracy of the 
Federal enumeration of New York city and Brooklyn in 1890 and the 
fact that the state enumeration of 1892 was superintended in those 
cities by persons presumably interested in proving that the national 
count was seriously deficient have induced me to make a comparison 
merely for the rest of the state, witli reference to which no charges of 
serious error have been made. The police census of New York city 
in 1895, however, makes possible an estimate of its population in 1890 
by comparing this census with that of 1880, and hence it has been in- 
cluded. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 243 
TABLE IV. 

POPUI^ATION OF STATE;S by CEJNSUSKS taken since 1890. 



STATES. 



Florida. . . 
Iowa .... 
Massachusetts 
Michigan . . 
Minnesota . 
New Jersey . 
New York^ 
Oregon . . . 
Rhode Island 
Utah .... 
Wisconsin . 
New York Cit^' 



Date of 
Census. 



May, 
June, 
June, 

June, 
June, 
June, 
June, 

June, 



1885 
18S5 
1885 
1884 
1885 
1885 
1880 
1880 
1885 
1880 
1885 
1880 



Population. 

342,6171 

1,753.98.'^ 
1,942,141* 
1,853658^ 
1,117,7986 
1,278,033" 
3,277,077^ 
174,768'' 
304, 2 84' 2 

143.963^ 
1,563,4231* 

1,206,299^ 



Date of 
Census. 



Population. 



May, 
June, 
June, 

Feb., 

June, 
Feb., 

Apr., 



1895 

1895 
1895 
1894 

1895 
1895 
1892 

1895 
1895 
1895 
1895 
1895 



464.639' 
2,058,069-^ 
2,500,183* 
2,24i,64i-'' 
i,574,6i9« 
1,673,106" 
3,716,32910 
362,513" 
384.758- 
247,3241^ 

1,937,915' 
1,851,060!^ 



constant per cent. The difference is like that between 
simple and compound interest. Each involves an arti- 
ficial simplification of a complex problem and each 
applied generally and to long periods of time results in 
absurdities. No population increases in either way. 
Non-progressive communities usually do not increase at 
all and among the most developed communities or 

'American Almanac, 18S9, p. 168. 
' Personal letter from the secretary of state. 
^ Census of Iowa, 1895, p. 259. 

* Census of Massachusetts, 1895, Volume I, Part I, p. 23. 
^Census of Michigan, 1894, Volume I, p. xli. 
•^ Census of Minnesota, 1895, p. 65. 
'Census of New Jersey, 1895, pp. 34, f. 
®The State excluding New York city and Brooklyn. 
® Eleventh Census, Compendium, Part i, pp. 32, f. 
1° Census of New York, 1892, pp. 4, f. 
" Census of Oregon, 1895, p. 11. 
12 Census of Rhode Island, 1885, p. 89. 
^^ Census of Utah, 1895, p. 17. 
^* Census of Wisconsin, 1885, p. 38. 
'^Census of Ne'.v York City, 1895, p. 7. 



244 Eco7iomic Studies. 

classes the desire for other elements of wellbeing than 
children may bring mankind again to a stationary condi- 
tion. Between these limits population ordinarily in- 
creases with the increase of food, but less rapidly. Mr. 
Farr seems to have assumed that because Malthus as- 
serted that population tended to increase at a geometri- 
cal rate, therefore the formula by which population 
should be estimated was that of compound interest.^ The 
assumption was better than the reason on which it was 
based. The true justification for the Registrar-General's 
method of estimating population is not Mai thus's theory of 
a tendency, translated as he never translated it into a law 
of population, but the fact that the population of England 
computed by this method has been nearer to the results 
of a careful census than that resulting from a use of the 
arithmetical method or an}^ other available. The same 
method is to be extended to other countries only after 
testing the results of the two and showing its greater 
accuracy. There are many considerations pointing to 
the conclusion that the rate of increase of population in 
the United States now is less than it has been in the 
past, and that it will be less in the future than it is now. 
For countries with a slowly decreasing rate of increase, 
the application of the geometrical method to the deter- 
mination of the population between two censuses will 
give erroneously small results, and under such circum- 
stances the arithmetical method may be the better way 
to approximate the facts. It has been shown that this 
method v^^ould have been somewhat more accurate for 

^ Farr, Vital Statistics, p. 19. 



Population of the United States aftd its Divisio?is. 245 

Massachusetts since 1850^ and for Michigan in recent 
years,^ and I am inclined to believe that it corresponds 
more closely than the other to the present conditions in 
most of our states. On the other hand the annual 
number of immigrants between 1890 and 1895 was 
slightly greater than the number between 1885 and 
1890^ and the excess of births over deaths in Massa- 
chusetts and Rhode Island between 1890 and 1894 
was larger both absolutely and relatively to the popula- 
tion than between 1885 and 1890/ On the whole I 
slightly prefer the arithmetical method for the United 
States at present, but in the table on the following page 
both have been applied. 

The censuses and estimates in these tables apply to over 
twenty-seven per cent, of the total population of the 
country and the total estimated by one method is within 
one-half of one per cent, and by the other within one 
and a half per cent, of the result of the census. But it 
might be fairer to exclude New York city, where the 
census of 1890 may have been exceptionally defective 
and where the difficulties of an accurate count are un- 
paralleled. If this be done the deviation from the esti- 

' F. S. Crum, The Marriage Rate in Massachusetts, Pub. Am. Stat. 
Ass'n., 4 :325, (Dec, 1S95). 

' Michigan Registration Report, 1893, pp. 6-10, and C. L. Wilbur, 
Note on Methods of Estimating Population, Pub. Am. Stat. Ass'n, 
5: 83-86, June, 1896. 

3 World Almanac, 1897, p. 149. 

* 27 Report of Mass. State Board of Health, 1S95, p. i ; 17 Report of 
R.I. Board of Health, 1894, p. iii. I believe these are the two states 
whose birth and death rates are most correct. 



246 



Economic Studies. 



table; v. 

COMPARISON BiSTWE^l^N RESUI^TS OF EILEVKNTH CKNSUS AND 

ESTIMATES. 



STATES. 



Florida .... 
Iowa 

Massachusetts . 
Michigan . . . 
Minnesota . . . 
New Jersey . . 
New York'-* . . 
New York city . 
Oregon .... 
Rhode Island . 

Utah 

Wisconsin . . . 



Total 



Population, June, 1890. 



Per cent, of 

variation from 

enumerated 

population 

of that 

estimated by 



Estimated 
by arith- 
metical 
method. 



403,628 
1,906,024 
2,225,812 
2,086,448 
1,346,208 
1,475,569 
3.653,577 
1,640,969 

299.931 

345,521 

214,436 

1,750,669 



17,348,792 



Enumer- 
ated. 



391,422 
1,911,896 
2,238,943 
2,093,889 
1,301,826 

1,444,933 
3,644,005 

1,515,301 

3^3,767 

345.506 

207,905 

1,686.880 



17,096,273 



Estimated 
by geome- 
trical 
method. 



398,440' 

1,882,200 

2,209,700 

2,076,700 

1,326.600 

1,447,200 

3,649,900 

1,610,000 

284,320 

342,120 

207,990 

1 , 740, 600 



17,176,270 



Arith- 
metical 
method 



+ 3 



+ 3 
+ 2 

+ 
+ 8 
-4 
+ 
+ 3 
+ 3 



+ 1.48 



Geome- 
trical 
method 



mates by either method would be well within one per 
cent. In other words, assuming (i) that the eleven state 
censuses were all accurate ; (2) that the average of these 
results may be extended to the remaining three-fourths 
of the population of the United States, and (3) that the 
population of the whole country has been growing by a 
constant amount annually, its true population in June, 
1890, was about 63,135,000, and the omissions in the 

^ It will be noticed that the numbers in this column are only ap- 
proximations. They have been computed wnth the aid of Fuller's 
spiral slide rule. As the error involved will not affect the per cents 
in the last column it seemed unnecessary to spend the additional time 
necessary for greater accuracy. 

^ Excluding New York city and Brooklyn. 



Population of the United States a7id its Divisions. 247 

Eleventli Census were rather over half a million, or slightly 
more than four-fifths of one per cent. On the other hand, 
if, in accordance with the weight of authority, the assump- 
tion that the population has been growing at a con- 
stant rate be preferred, then the true population of the 
United States in June, 1890, was about 62,560,000, and 
the Eleventh Census reported about 60,000 more people 
than there were in the country, an error of about one- 
tenth of one per cent. The only obvious escape from the 
conclusion is to deny the general accuracy or the typi- 
cal character of the state censuses, and I see no reason for 
either. This constitutes a strong argument in favor of 
the substantial accuracy of the Eleventh Census. Until 
it is answered or more evidence is presented, the results 
of that count, it seems to me, must be accepted as more 
accurate than any estimate which can now be substi- 
tuted for them. A reader loath to admit a conclusion 
which has been so often disputed or denied, may attach 
weight to the opinion of a disinterested expert thoroughly 
competent to judge. I quote by permission from a 
letter written to me in July, 1897, by the present head 
of the Eleventh Census, Carroll D. Wright, Commis- 
sioner of lyabor. He says : "I think that the Eleventh 
Census came within less than one per cent, of the true 
enumeration of the inhabitants. While there was a 
slight shortage in some cases, this was doubtless in part 
offset by an unavoidable duplication of names in other 
parts." 

My own opinion has been considerably modified by 
the study, the conclusions of which have been presented, 



248 Economic Studies. 

and I am now convinced tliat the count is to be ac- 
cepted. Whatever decision may be reached on the com- 
plicated question, critics will probably agree that if the 
accuracy of the census is to be upheld, it must be on 
different grounds from the curiously improbable ones 
stated in the census volumes themselves^ They argue 
that the usual estimate of half to three-fourths of a 
million for the omissions of the census of 1870 is alto- 
gether too small, and that the true population at that 
time may be better approximated by assuming that 
" the rate of increase in the southern states between i860 
and 1870 and between 1870 and 1880 was the same." 
The tacit assumption that the civil war had no percept- 
ible effect upon the decennial increase of population as 
compared with that of the following decade, is so vio- 
lent as to arouse the suspicion that the writer was hard 
pressed for arguments, and the suspicion is confirmed 
on noticing that the hypothesis is twice denied within 
the following five pages, but after the necessities of the 
argument are removed. This may have contributed 
more than it should to undermine my confidence in a 
work which appealed to such support. For the fore- 
going reasons, it is my belief that the Eleventh Census is 
well within one per cent, of the truth in its statement of 
the total population of the United States, and that there 
is little likelihood that now or in the future estimates of 
greater accuracy can be made. 

1 Eleventh Census. Population, Part I, pp. xi, xii. Compen- 
dium, Part I, pp. xxxv-xxxvii. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 249 

Statistics has not yet obtained a definite answer to the 
question, How many people are there on the earth's sur- 
face ? But much progress has been made in the present 
century towards its solution. At its beginning the high- 
est careful estimate was probably that of Suessmilch, 
who had computed it in 1761, as rather more than a 
billion.^ In the dearth of better information, he was 
compelled to guess at the population of Asia by assum- 
ing that on the average it was as thickly settled as 
Europe, and being five times as large, had accordingly 
five times as many inhabitants.^ At the present time, 
the best authorities concur in putting the population of 
the earth nearly fifty per cent, higher than Suessmilch 
did. 

ESTIMATED POPUIvATlON OF THE EARTH. 



AUTHORITY. 


Date. 


Estimate. 


lyCvasseur ^ 


1886 
1890 
1891 
1893 


1,483,000,000 
1,467,920,000 
1,480,000,000 
1,485,763,000 


Ravenstein ' ........ 

Wagner and Supan ^ 

Juraschek ^ 



The results of careful and long continued efforts to 
determine the population of the earth are found in Die 
Bevolkerung der Erde, and at almost every issue of 
this work the figure stated as the conclusion of the 
authors' studies has been an increase on their preceding 

^His table gives 1,080 million and is followed by the statement, 
"The entire sum of all persons on the earth's surface accordingly is 
between 1000 and iioo million." Die Gottliche Ordnung, ed. 1761, 
vol. 2, p. 234. 

2 Ibid., p. 215. 

3 Op. cit. 



2.50 Ecofiomic Studies. 

estimates. This will appear from the following sum- 
mary of their figures in chronological order. 

WORI^D'S POPUI^ATION IN MII^IylONS ACCORDING TO SUCCESSIVE) 
ISSUES OF DIE BEVOEIvKERUNG DER ERDE- 

Date. Estimate. 

1866 1350 

1872 • • • 1377 

1874 1391 

1875 1397 

1876 1424 

1878 1439 

1880 1456 

1882 1434 

189I 1480 

The causes of the almost uninterrupted increase in the 
size of the estimates are an actual increase in the popu- 
lation and the extension of the statistical method. Thus 
the number of persons in 1880 who had been either 
counted, or, as in Russia, ascertained by many years of 
registration, was 626 million.^ The population of the 
same countries in 1891 was 737 million, an increase of 
nearly eighteen per cent. Forty-one million of this was 
found in Europe and over twelve in the United States, 
where it was due to actual increase. Forty-one million 
was found in British India, where a considerable part may 
have been due to the improved accuracy of the censuses 
of 1 88 1 and 1891 over the first Indian census, that of 
187 1. Since 1880 censuses or careful registrations have 
been had for the first time in some of the smaller states 
of southeastern Europe, in most of the native states of 
India, in Japan and other localities. The combined pop- 
ulation of these regions was estimated in 1880 as 85 
million ; the application of the statistical method showed 

it to be 99 million. This method has now been applied 
» Die Bevolkerung der Krde, 1891, p. vi. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 251 

to 836 million people, one- third more than in 1880, and 
about five-ninths of the estimated population of the 
earth, but included in this total are the 113 million in- 
habitants of the Russian Empire, where the first census 
is now (1897) in progress. A partial offset to this in- 
crease in the population of well-governed communities 
is found in reductions of the estimates for Africa by 38 
million and for Asia by 8 million. The greatest open 
problem is that of the population of China, where two 
imperfect enumerations have been made during the cen- 
tury, that of 1 81 2 showing 362 million and that of 1842 
showing 413 million. The present tendency of critics 
seems to be in the direction of discarding entirely the 
results of the later enumeration and assuming that the 
population has remained stationary or decreased since 
181 2, but current estimates still differ by nearly 200 
million.^ 

It is well-nigh impossible carefully to compare either 
the area or the population of the continents because 
there is no concensus regarding their boundaries or the 
treatment of adjoining islands or polar lands. Hence 
in both cases the appropriate large unit is the great 
power, since every nation defines and if possible compels 
the acceptance of its boundaries. From the standpoint 
of population the great power may perhaps be defined as 
one having a population of 35 million or more. In this 
sense there are probably ten great powers and the num- 
ber of their inhabitants including those in all dependen- 
cies is indicated in the following table : 

'Op. cit, p. 100. 



252 



Economic Studies. 



TABLE VI. 
popuivATiON OF the; most popui^ous countries according 

TO VARIOUS AUTHORITIES. 



COUNTRIES. 


Geographisch- 

statistische 

Tabellen, 

1893- 


Almanach de 
Gotha, 

1897. 


Statesman's 
Year-Book, 

1897. 


China 


359,750,000 

352,374,409 
116,812,731 

76,594,435 
62,979,766 

55,658,794 
43,233,073 
40,453,461 
36,910,345 
21,183,299 


357,250,000 
360,800,000 
121,405,828 

79,153,192 
62,982,244 

59,353,894 
41,384,956 
41,810,202 
39,252,151 
36,900,000 


402,680,000 
383,488,469 
129 545,000 

70,467,775 
62,979,766 
62,879,901 
41,358,886 
41813,215 

38,859,451 
39,212,000 


British Empire 
Russian Empire . . 
France . ... 




United States . . , 
German Empire . 
Austria-Hungary . 

Japan 

Netherlands . , . 




Ottoman Empire . 




Total. . . . 


• 


1,165,950,313 


1,161,040,317 


1,273,284,463 



About four-fifths of the inhabitants of the earth are 
under the sway of some one of these ten great powers. 
Seven are European in origin and dominant civilization 
and Christian in religion, Japan is seeking to assimilate 
or adapt the culture of Europe, while the two other great 
powers, China and Turkey, are probably stationary or 
decreasing in population and growing relatively if not 
absolutely weaker. Among these powers the United 
States occupies the fifth place and includes about one 
twenty-fifth of the population of the earth. 

It would lead one too far afield to examine the reasons 
for the differences in the preceding table, but as we are 
especially concerned with the United States, the figures 
for their population may be scrutinized in detail. 
Two of the authorities agree but the third differs by 
nearly 2,500. The World Almanac for 1897 gives the 
total population of the United States in 1890 as 62,831,900 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 253 

[p. 373]. These differences in secondary authorities 
slight as they are must have some cause. All agree in 
the basis of the figures, 62,622,250 as the number of 
residents of the forty-nine states of the Union enumer- 
ated in the general count. To this number must be 
added the population of Alaska, of Indian territory, and 
of the Indian reservations in other parts of the country. 
The World Almanac falls into error by ignoring the last 
of these three additions. But the population of Alaska 
is given in the World Almanac and at one place in the 
Tribune Almanac for the current year as 30,329, in the 
Almanach de Gotha as 31,795 and in the Statesman's 
Year-Book as 32,052. The first of these numbers is de- 
rived from Census Bulletin 30, February 11, 1891, 
(Alaska, Statistics of Population), which contains a 
summary of the population as far as then received, 
21,929, and adds that 8,400 more will probably come in 
from remote districts. The second number is taken 
from Census Bulletin 150, November 28, 1891, (Popu- 
lation of Alaska, Official Count.) The third is derived 
from the census volume on Alaska published at Wash- 
ington in 1893. Thus one provisional and two final 
official statements of the population of Alaska were 
issued by the Census Office, all different, and appar- 
ently no attempt was made to explain their con- 
flict. It is unfortunate to issue provisional and incorrect 
statements which thus give rise to perpetuated blunders 
difficult to trace and correct, and in the present case it 
can scarcely be argued in defense that the people at large 
or important special interests were waiting impatiently 



254 Economic Studies. 

to learn tlie population of Alaska. The three secondary 
authorities differ also in their statements of the popula- 
tion of Indian territory, but the source used by the 
American and German compilations remains undetected. 
In this case as in the preceding the English manual is 
correct. 

The word population is used in the census volumes in 
three senses : i. The constitutional population, which is 
the basis for the apportionment of members of the House 
of Representatives. It excludes all residents of territories, 
the District of Columbia or Indian reservations.^ 2. The 
general population, which includes, in addition to the 
constitutional population, the residents of the District 
of Columbia and those living off the Indian reserva- 
tions in all territories except Indian territory and 
Alaska. 3. The total population, which includes, in 
addition to the general population, all residents of 
Indian reservations, Indian territory and Alaska. Of 
these three meanings, the most commonly employed in 
the census volumes is the second. For scientific pur- 
poses the third is the important one, and hence it is sat- 
isfactory to note the suggestion that " it may be advis- 
able hereafter to include in the general population all 
human beings within the limits of the country whether 
Indians in tribal relations or otherwise."^ The constitu- 
tional population of the United States June i, 1890, was 
61,908,906 ; the general population was 62,622,250 ; the 
total population was 62,979,766. 

' This meaning is very uncommon, but occurs in Compendium, 
Part I, p. V. 

2 Eleventh Census, Population, Part i, p. c. 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 255 



While for the country as a whole, the census gives 
the total population, for the several states it gives only 
the general population. To find their total population 
the results of the special Indian census must be added/ 
In this way the following table has been prepared. The 
states are arranged in the order of rank and the propor- 
tion that the population of each state makes of the en- 
tire population of the country has also been computed 
and included. 

TABLE VII. 

TOTAI, POPULATION OF BACH STATE) AND PERCENTAGK OF COUNTRY. 



STATES. 



New York . . 
Pennsylvania 
Illinois . , . 
Ohio ■ ' ' ' 
Missouri . . . 
Massachusetts 
Texas .... 
Indiana . . . 
Michigan . . 
Iowa .... 
Kentucky . . 
Georgia . , . 
Tennessee . . 
Wisconsin . . 
Virginia . , . 
North Carolina 
Alabama . . 
New Jersey , 
Kansas . . . 
Minnesota. , 
Mississippi , 
California . . 
South Carolina 
Arkansas . , 
Louisiana . , 
Nebraska . , 
Maryland . , 



Population. 



6,003,174 
5,258,113 
3,826,352 

3,672,329 
2,679,185 
2,238,947 

2,235,527 
2,192,404 
2,093,890 
1,912,297 
1,858,635 

1,837,353 
1,767,518 

1,693,330 
1,655,980 

1,617,949 
1,513,401 

1,444,933 
1,428,108 
1,310,283 
1,289,600 
1,213,398 

1,151,149 
1,128,211 

1,118,588 

1,062,656 

1,042,390 



Per- 
centage, 



9-532 

8.349 
6.076 
.831 
.254 
•555 
•550 
.481 

•325 
3-037 
2.952 
2.917 
2.807 
2.689 
2.630 

2.569 
2.403 
2.294 
2.267 
2.080 
2.048 
1.927 
1.828 

1. 791 
1.776 
1.687 
1.655 



STATES. 



West Virginia 
Connecticut . 
Maine. . . . 
Colorado. . . 
Florida . . . 
New Hampshire 
Washington . 
South Dakota 
Rhode Island 
Vermont . . 
Oregon . . . 
Dist.ofColumb 
Utah .... 
North Dakota 
Indian Territory 
Delaware . 
New Mexico 
Montana . 
Idaho . . . 
Arizona . . 
Oklahoma . 
Wyoming . 
Nevada , . 
Alaska . . 

Total , 



Population. 



762,794 
746,258 
661,086 

413,249 
391,422 

376,530 
357,232 
348,600 
345,506 
332,422 

317,704 
230,392 
210,779 
190,983 
180,182 
168,493 
160,282 
142,924 
88,548 
88,243 

78,475 
62,555 
47,355 
32,052 



62,979,766 



Per- 
centage. 



1. 212 

I.185 
1.050 
.656 
.621 
.598 
.567 

• 554 
.549 
.528 

.505 
.366 

.335 
.303 
.286 
.268 

.255 
.227 

.141 
.140 

• 125 
.099 

•075 
.051 



100.006 



'To be found in Bleventh Census, Indians, p. 81. 



256 Economic Studies. 

^he table shows that the eight most populous di- 
visions of the country form a belt stretching with but 
one break, across the country from Massachusetts bay to 
the Rio Grande. This belt, with Michigan, includes 
every state with over two million inhabitants, and if 
Iowa also be added to the list, these ten populous states 
have over one half of the population of the country. The 
eight states with least population include, besides Al- 
aska, seven lying in the form of a letter C almost en- 
closing Colorado and Utah and nowhere touching the 
coast. They have altogether 700,434 inhabitants, about 
the same as Maine or Connecticut, and rather more than 
one per cent, of the population of the entire country. 
The area they occupy is one and a quarter million 
(1,245,100) square miles, over two-fifths of the country, 
or far more than the total area east of the Mississippi. It 
may also be noticed that only two of the fifty-one states 
decreased in population in the last decade, and that 
these were the least populous ones, Nevada and Alaska. 
The total population of the counties cannot be known. 
The results of the special Indian census are given only 
by states. Hence only the general population of the 
counties is ascertainable, but as in most of them there 
are no Indian reservations this fact especially in the 
eastern states is of little moment. The enumerated pop- 
ulation of a county ranges from 3 (in Mackenzie county. 
North Dakota and Loving county, Texas) to over one and 
a half million (New York county) and the average popula- 
tion of the 2784 counties outside Indian territory is 
about 22,500 (22,494). 



Population of the United States and its Divisions. 257 

There are 24 counties, including under that name the 
District of Columbia, each of which has a population of 
over two hundred thousand, and 34 each of which has a 
population of between one and two hundred thousand. 
Of the former group only one, San Francisco, lies west 
of the west bank of the Mississippi and only one other, 
Orleans, lies south of the line of the Potomac and the 
Ohio. Three-fourths of them touch either the Atlantic 
or one of the Great Lakes. The populous counties of 
the country are massed between the Atlantic ocean and 
the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi, Ohio and Potomac 
rivers. Of the 58 counties with more than 100,000 in- 
habitants 49 lie in this region. 

But such comparisons as have been implied between 
the population of different countries, states, or counties 
may suggest the danger of disregarding the wide differ- 
ences of area involved. The Netherlands including its 
Bast Indian possessions may have about the same popu- 
lation as the Ottoman Empire, or Massachusetts as 
Texas, or New York as Chicago, but in proportion to the 
area occupied the two members of each pair differ 
widely. To avoid the errors likely to arise from over- 
looking the differences of area, the ratio of population 
to area or the density of population must be ascertained. 
Discussion of this subject is reserved for a subsequent 
study. 



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ASSOCIATED WITH : BDWARDS A. PARK, FRANK H. FOSTER, JUDSON SMITH, D. 

W. SIMON, WM. M. BARBOUR, SAMUEI. IVES CURTISS, CHAS. F. THWING, 

A. A. BERIvE, W. E. BARTON, E- H. JOHNSON, JACOB COOPER, 

AND E. W. BEMIS. 



CONTENTS OF THE JANUARY NUMBER. 

Evolution and Fall of Man. David "The Master-Passion." William I. 

Worthington Simon. Fletcher. 

The Religious I.ife : Its Nature and ^he New Theology. Jacob A. Biddle. 

Claims. James Harris Faircnild. 

Sympathy with the I.ower Animals. The Reconstruction of Theology. 

Mattoon Monroe Curtis. I^avid Nelson Beach. 

The Predictive Element in Old Tes- THe Social Law of Service. Newell 

tament Prophecy. Walter Robert Dwisrht Hillis. 



Betteridge. 

Eighteen 
ard T. Stevenson. 



_^ ^ „ „. , Harnack's "History of Dogma." Al- 

An Eighteenth Century Club. Rich- h&xt Temple Swing. 

CONTENTS OF THE APRII, NUMBER. 



The Paradoxes of Science. G. Fred- Is the Recognition of the Church 

erick Wright. Year by all Christians Desirable? 

Spencer's Philosophy of Religion. ^ R. DeWitt Mallary. 

Edwin Stutelv Carr The Ideal of Church Music. Edward 

,, ' ' «, •, Dickinson. 

Tennyson's "In Memori am." Theodore -^^^ Tell-el-Amarna I^etters. John 

W. Hunt. M. P. Metcalf. 

Cosmogony of Genesis. Henry Morton. Christianity and Social Problems. Z. 

Swift Holbrook. 

No National Stability Without Mo- ^jje Housing Question and Scientific 

RALiTY. Charles W. Super. Reform. William Caldwell, 

CONTENTS OF THE JUI^Y NUMBER. 

The Tell-el-Amarna Letters. John How to Promote the Study of Greek. 

M. P. Metcalf. H. A. Scomp. 

T„K BI.OODV SW.AT OP O™ 1,0.1,. W. W. ^"-"^Ji'olrof jSJsoI'^''"^""''™'- 

^^^°- The Idea of the Kingdom of God. Ed- 

JosEPH as a Statesman. James Monroe. ward Mortimer Chapman. 

The Cosmogony of Genesis. Henry Evolution and Christian Doctrine. 

Morton. W. Douglas Mackenzie. 

The Sociological, Critical, and Semitic Notes and the Book Reviews form an important 
feature of the numbers. 



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VOL. I, NO. 2, JUNE, 1897. (Now ready.) 

Why New York should Own Its Gas Supply, A Controversy. By Hon. Ed- 
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Municipal Reform during the Past Year. By Clinton Rogers Woodruff. 

The Finances of New York City. By Henry DeForest Baldwin. 

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Among the articles which have recently appeared are the following : 

THE ETHICS OF RElvIGIOUS CONFORMITY. Henry Sidgwick. 

THE MORAI, ASPECTS OF SOCIAI^ISM. Sidney Ball. 

THE ETHICAI, I.IFE AND CONCEPTIONS OF THE JAPANESE. ToKiwo YOKOi. 

IS PI^EASURE THE SUMMUM BONUM ? jAMES Seth. 

THE ETHICAI, ASPECTS OF SOCIAI, SCIENCE- I.ESTER F. Ward. 

RIGHTS AND DUTIES. J. S. Mackenzie. 

THE JEWISH QUESTION IN ITS RECENT ASPECTS. Morris Jastrow, Jr. 

INTERNATIONAI, ARBITRATION. John Westlake. 

IS THE FAMII^Y DECI^INING? J. H. MuiRHEAD. 

THE MORAI, TEACHINGS OF THE ANCIENT ZOROASTRIAN REI.IGION. A. V. 
Williams Jackson. 

PROFESSOR SIDGWICK ON THE ETHICS OF REWGIOUS CONFORMITY. Rev. 
Hastings Rashdall, Hertford College, Oxford. 

THE ETHICAI^ AND POI^ITICAL PROBI^EMS OF NEW JAPAN. TOKIWO YOKIO, 
Tokyo, Japan. 

MORAWTY AND THE BElylEE IN THE SUPERNATURAI^. Prof. Eliza Ritchie, 
Wellesley, College. 

THE RESTORATION OF ECONOMICS TO ETHICS. Charles S. Devas, Royal Uni 
versity of Ireland. 

THE RESPONSIBIIvlTlES OF THE I<AWYER. Joseph B. Warner, Boston. 

THE PSYCHOI,OGY OF SOCIAI, PROGRESS. Helen Bosanquet, I^ondon. 

THE MORAL I.IFE OF THE EARI,Y ROMANS. Frank Granger, University Col- 
lege, Nottingham. 

SOCTAI, I,IFE AND MORAI^ITY IN INDIA. Muhammad Abdul Ghani, India. 



The July number will contain articles on ''■The Ethical Side of the Free Silver Cam- 
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William Douglas Morrison, of I,ondon. 

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Among the other writers in recent volumes have been : 
President ANDREWS, of Brov/n University. Prof. MAYO-SMITH, of Columbia University 

B. H. BADEN-POWElvI/, of Oxford. Prof. MOSES, of the University of Calf- 
Prof. BOHM-BAWERK, of Vienna. fornia. 

JAMES BONAR, of I^ondon. Prof. NEWCOMB, of Washington. 

Prof. BOURNE, of Yale University. Prof. PATTEN, of the University of Penn- 
Prof. ClyARK, of Columbia University. sylvania. 

Prof. GIDDINGS, " " Prof. PHII^I^IPOVICH, of Vienna. 

HENRY HIGGS, of I^ondon. Prof. SP:I.IGMAN, of Columbia University 
Prof. JAMES, of the University of Chicago. Prof. WAGNER, of Berlin. 

Prof. LEXIS, of Gottingeu. Presidenc WALKER, of the Massachusetts 
Prof. MACVANE, of Harvard UniversitJ^ Institute of Technolo^. 

Prof. MARSHALL, of Cambridge, Eng. CARROLL D. V/RlGHT,'of the National La- 
Prof. MAVOR, of Toronto University. bor Department. 



CONTENTS FOR JANUARY, 1897. 

I. THE OLD GENERATION OE ECONOMISTS AND THE NEW. . Alfred Marshall 

II. CURRENCY DISCUSSION IN MASSACHUSETTS IN THE 

EIGHTEENTH CENTURY. II Andrew McFarland Davis 

III. A FORERUNNER OF BOHM-BAWERK C W. Mixter 

IV. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LEGISLATION OF THE STATES 

IN 1896 William B. Shaw 

NOTES AND MEMORANDA. 

Some Recent Books on Local Taxation Edwin R. A. Seligmau 

The Agricultural Changes of the XVth Century . . Francis Gardiner Davenport 

RECENT PUBLICATIONS UPON ECONOMICS. 

CONTENTS FOR APRIL, 1897. 

I. THE SAFETY OF THE LEGAL TENDER PAPER Charles V. Dunbar 

II. THE BIRTH-RATE IN MASSACHUSETTS, 1850-90 F. S. Cruni 

III. CO-OPERATIVE STORES IN THE UNITED STATES Edward Cummings 

IV. THE STEADILY APPRECIATING STANDARD CM. Walsh 

V. THE TAXATION OF SUGAR IN THE UNITED STATES, 1789-1S61 . Chas. S. Griffin 
NOTES AND MEMORANDA. 

The Different Meanings of " Cost " Arthur Twining Hadley 

California and the Direct Tax of 1861 Bernard Moses 

RECENT PUBLICATIONS UPON ECONOMICS. 



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